Will I make it to the end of the month?

"You've spent $1,200 of your $2,000 budget."

Is that good news or bad news?

It depends entirely on the date. On the 25th, you're doing great. On the 8th, you're in trouble. Most budget screens show you the first number and leave you to do the maths on the second.

I wanted Xpento's budget page to answer the question you're actually asking: at this rate, will I make it?

Pace, not progress

The idea is simple. Take what you've spent so far, divide it by the number of days that have passed, and you have your daily average. Multiply that by the number of days in the month, and you have a projection: where you'll end up if the rest of the month looks like the first part.

Here's an example. Say your budget is $2,000, it's the 10th of a 30-day month, and you've spent $800.

Daily average: $800 ÷ 10 = $80 a day
Projected month-end: $80 × 30 = $2,400
That's $400 over budget, even though you've only used 40% of it.

"40% used" sounds fine. "$400 over by the end of the month" doesn't. It's the same data, but only one of them tells you to slow down.

What the budget page tells you

At the top of Xpento's budget page there's a health banner. It uses the projection to put your month into one of a few states:

On track. Your pace ends the month under budget. The banner also tells you how much you can spend per day for the rest of the month and still make it.
Above pace. Either the projection lands over your budget, or you've used noticeably more of your budget than the share of the month that's gone by. It shows you the daily average and how far over you're heading.
Budget exceeded. You're already past it, and it tells you by how much and how many days are left.

At the end of the month the banner switches to a plain result: finished under, or finished over, and by how much.

Why the daily allowance matters

Of all of these, the number I look at most is the daily allowance on the "On track" banner. Something like "$42.50/day remaining."

A monthly budget is too big to feel. You can't hold $2,000 in your head while deciding whether to get takeaway. But $42.50 for today? That's a number you can actually use at the till.

Where the projection gets it wrong

A projection is only as smart as a straight line, and months aren't straight lines.

Rent and big bills. If rent comes out on the 1st, your daily average in the first week will look terrifying. It settles down as the month goes on.
The first day. On the 1st there's nothing to project from, so Xpento just says tracking has started and asks you to come back tomorrow.
One-off purchases. A new laptop on the 5th makes the whole month look expensive until the days catch up.

So treat the banner as a nudge, not a verdict. If it says you're above pace, it's worth a look. It doesn't mean the month is lost.

Try it

If you haven't set a budget yet, set just one number: a monthly total. You don't need category budgets to get the projection. Then check back in a week and see what pace you're on. Budgets and the projection are part of Xpento's free plan.

— Rayhan Shikder